Thank you Sunrise Rotary namely Bruce Clark and Bruce Uditsky and Sherwood Park Rotary – Adesola Adade and Michael Gorski

My presentation Megatrends 2020 is designed to provoke you to re-read the book Megatrends written in 1982 AND to simplify the complex mess of information complicating your lives and business:

1. There are three broad sociodemographic markets: Youth, Workforce, and Seniors each with differing views of the future

2. Emerging technologies impact on the economy promise continuous and significant change in the future

3. Change itself has significant social and political impact increasing interest in “victims” – racial and injustice

4. Woe to those not aware, those who are  not prepared, for changes – most of which are already underway.

I recommend a re-read of Megatrends written in 1982 – 38 years ago that identified “Ten New Directions Transforming Your Lives.” Let me save you the time for a re- read and also reflect on today – 38 years later.

Note we have the advantage of hindsight and so we can see that Megatrends missed several technical, social, political, economic events – black swans, that have shaken the globe since 1982. Also missed, and now apparent are the interrelationships between the trends. Stunning however is how spot on were the trends identified and associated forecasts.

The 10 Megatrends – 1982

1. INDUSTRIAL -> INFORMATION SOCIETY.

As information is free flowing, education/ income levels and expectations rise, birthrates collapse, deregulation follows. Collapse of exclusive rights of practice and role the internet – Google transforming the client to a consumer disrupting the professional/ client relationship.

The beginning of the end of the knowledge economy.

2. FORCED TECHNOLOGY -> HIGH TECH/HIGH TOUCH. Emerging technologies across all industries/ professions. Analytics, BIG Data, and The Cloud – foundations of AI/ automation/ robotics/the internet of everything/ “personalization” of services and products – on time, on spec, on budget, affordable everything.

3. NATIONAL -> WORLD ECONOMY. Globalization, integration of supply chains, adoption of capitalism. Outsourcing of manufacturing and supply sourcing to 3rd world.

Volitility of the world’s energy and associated tourism and transportation industries. The US boom in shale oil and oil price decline. The drive for economic diversification in China and the Middle-east with Europe and North America as victims.

Note. The financial crisis/ meltdown(s) since 1982 and collapse of interest rates, income disparity and income insecurity for seniors.

4. SHORT TERM -> LONG TERM. Management driven to embrace change vs maintenance of the status quo – “If it ain’t broken, break it”, anticipating broad sweeping industrial and professional transitions.

5. CENTRALIZATION -> DECENTRALIZATION. Cynicism of science, media, central authorities, institutions and rise of anti-history. Energy decentralized. Rise of municipal authority. Contracting out. Transportation systems of air regionalized routing and localized public transit.

6. INSTITUTIONAL -> SELF-HELP. Collapse of exclusive rights of practice and role the internet – Google transforming the client to a consumer disrupting the professional/ client relationship.

7. REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY -> PARTICIPATIVE DEMOCRACY. Collapse of the Berlin Wall/ Communism, rise of democracy and associated “chaos”, end of the Cold War and localized revolutions in Middle Eadt, Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa, South America.

8. HIERARCHIES -> NETWORKING. As information is free flowing, education/ income levels and expectations rise, birthrates collapse – families change,  deregulation follows and new communities of common interest emerge.

9. SOUTH v NORTH.. Emergence of bi-polar political conflict between strengthening of southern ultra-conservative values v weakening of northern liberal values also religion/ faith confronts science/ fact.

10. EITHER/OR -> MULTIPLE OPTION. Sociodemographics. Mass migration, crashing birthrates, and millenials managing change. Choice in goods and services increase – “personalization” increases.

BLACK SWANS – GLOBAL EVENTS

Each have affected trends identified in 1982 further increasing complexity/ noise/ uncertainty and amplifying trends already underway.

PANDEMICS. The Covid-19 and SARS pandemics have amplified trends already underway: increasing public debt, transforming the workplace and shopping centers, gutting of urban centres, a collapse of tourism and hospitality, rise of conspiracy and social media, private/ personal challenging public/ impersonal service arrangements. I.e. Personalization/ social distancing.

TERRORISM. An increase in external and domestic terrorism has triggered mass migration, issues of personal and public security, state/ homeland intervention, Xenophobia including and Islamaphobia

CLIMATE CHANGE.  Claims of global warming and anticipated devastation have altered newfound respect for the environment, decentralization of energy supply, energy alternatives and incentives, increased regulatory intervention, and transformation of lifestyle – conservation and energy sourcing.

SOCIAL ABUSE. Drug, domestic, media, racial, history/ “Critical theories”, corporate, data, and associated reporting. CBC daytime programming is devoted exclusively to “victim” issues of racial and social injustice.

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES. Worldwide science/ applied research are embraced to  address increased economic competition and social issues. Challenge to establish “relational” networks, sourcing investment/ engineering/ entrepreneurship, and developing the requisite innovation ecosystem(s). Biotech. Education. AI and Robotics.Transportation. Agritech. Fintech. Infotech. Materials. Alberta progress report November.

WHO TO TRUST. With increased personalization, external sources of trust are declining and “trust” is becoming less relevant. The data corp/ Googles, are filling the void – as the monitor, with less and less recoil. Anticipate state intervention. Visit PerryKinkaide.com

MEGATRENDS 2020…for more visit PerryKinkaide.com

o Significant change is anticipated in the future

o Very significant by those of working age; more so than retired/ seniors/ age 65+

o Those of all ages who expect the most significant change cite/ trust reading sources more than social media.

o Youth under age 18 cite concerns of climate change, technology and the future of work, plus mental health and diversity of immigrants. More usage of social media.

o Workforce aged 18-65 cite income disparity, technology and the future of work, and increasing government intervention

Note. Little mention of climate change

o Seniors 65+ echo concerns of the workforce but less so…as the prime sources of change are expected to affect the workforce most – employment and continuous change/ learning.

CONCLUSION