Last weeks webinar HERE featured a discussion following up on the last two newsletters HERE addressing the Unintended Consequences of Technological Progress and Ending Violence and Restoring A Civil Society. This weeks newsletter addresses climate change and the worldwide energy transition. - Editor
IS CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL? REGARDLESS AN ENERGY TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY
There’s a whole lot of shaking going on. Is climate change an existential disaster for humanity? You either believe it and are fearful, or you don’t. Well, I’ve asked around and decided it’s time to settle the score, unravel what’s up, and take a stand. So, I asked the smartest person I know. Leigh Bond has spent years as a pragmatist in the rapidly growing market of alternative energy, a market driven not by “peak oil” but by the fear that the climate is changing in unprecedented ways. Several nations supplying oil and gas—Russia, Venezuela, Iran—are unreliable. Mankind must slow down, if not stop, emitting CO2—NetZero. The following two articles address what “climate change” is and highlight what to do, as the "climate" is our environment, and as it changes, we must adapt. I have summarized the threats and the adaptations underway. — Editor
Is climate change real? Most would say, "absolutely". Others say "maybe". Regardless, the market has spoken - we are in an energy transition. Why? Let’s explore these two interrelated phenomena.
Climate change is real. Overwhelming scientific evidence supports this conclusion:
- Temperature Rise. According to NASA and NOAA, the Earth's average surface temperature has increased by approximately 1.1°C (2.0°F) since the late 19th century. Most of this warming has occurred in the past 35 years. This trend is not random and aligns with increased greenhouse gas emissions.
- Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The burning of fossil fuels creates greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) that are released into the atmosphere. The atmospheric concentration of CO2 is now over 415 parts per million (ppm): it had never been above 300 ppm in the last 1.2 million years.
- Melting Ice Caps and Glaciers. Due to rising temperatures, Arctic Sea ice, glaciers, and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are melting at alarming rates. This melting contributes to sea-level rise and disrupts ecosystems.
- Sea-Level Rise. Sea levels have risen by about 20 centimeters (8 inches) in the last century, with the rate of increase doubling in recent decades. Rising sea levels threaten coastal communities and ecosystems, and increase the frequency and severity of storm surges.
- Extreme Weather Events. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, heatwaves, droughts, and floods have increased dramatically in the last few decades. These events exacerbate heatwaves and droughts, creating stress on water and food resources.
- Ocean Warming and Acidification. The oceans absorb much of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases, leading to ocean warming. This affects marine ecosystems, which are experiencing widespread bleaching making it more difficult for marine organisms like corals and shellfish to survive.
- Scientific Consensus. Over 97% of climate scientists agree that human activity is driving climate change. In addition,78% of CEO’s are developing climate mitigation plans, and 67% of the world’s population believes that it is the biggest problem of our times.
- Historical Data. Paleoclimate data from ice cores, tree rings, and sediment layers show that the Earth’s climate has fluctuated naturally over millions of years. For the last 1.2 million years the earth has cycled from hothouse to glacial ages about every 120,000 years. The Milankovitch Cycles explain why. The earth does not orbit the sun in a circle, it moves in an expanding and contracting ellipse. In the early 1800’s we were on our way to an ice age, but then the climate cycle made a major change in direction from getting colder to getting hotter. Human activity is to blame.
The concerns about CO2 emissions were a prime reason contributing to a worldwide energy transition.
An energy transition is not new. Throughout history, societies have experienced several major energy transitions, each transforming economies, technologies, and the environment. These shifts occur when new energy sources replace older ones, often leading to greater efficiency and societal change. Each time there has been a transition there have been winners and losers. The losers fight to keep the status quo, the winners drive the transition.
Here’s an overview of the key energy transitions in human history:
- Biomass to Early Agriculture (Prehistoric Times)
- Time Period: Prehistoric to Ancient Times (~12,000 years ago)
- Energy Source: Biomass (wood, plant materials, animal labor)
- Impact: Early human civilizations relied on muscle power (human and animal) and fire for cooking, warmth, and basic tools. This shift allowed for the growth of settlements and early forms of economic production.
- The Use of Wind and Water Power (Ancient to Medieval Times)
- Time Period: Ancient civilizations to the Medieval period (~3000 BCE–1500 CE)
- Energy Source: Wind (windmills, sailing ships) and water (watermills)
- Impact: This allowed for greater productivity in agriculture and manufacturing, laying the groundwork for pre-industrial societies and early technological innovations in Europe, China, and the Middle East.
- The Industrial Revolution and the Rise of Coal (18th–19th Century)
- Time Period: Late 1700s to the 1800s
- Energy Source: Coal
- Impact: Coal-powered machines dramatically increased productivity, leading to rapid urbanization, economic growth, and social changes. It also spurred the growth of industries such as textiles, iron, and steel. However, it also contributed to pollution and poor working conditions.
- The Oil and Electricity Era (Late 19th–20th Century)
- Time Period: Late 1800s to the early 1900s
- Energy Source: Oil and electricity
- Impact: The adoption of oil revolutionized transportation with cars, trucks, airplanes, and ships, while electricity transformed industries, cities, and households. New power plants allowed for mass production of consumer goods, communication (telegraphs, telephones), and the rise of modern infrastructure. Oil also fueled two world wars and became crucial for geopolitics.
- The Post-War Fossil Fuel Expansion and the Rise of Natural Gas (20th Century)
- Time Period: Mid-20th Century
- Energy Source: Oil, coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy
- Impact: This era saw a massive expansion in energy consumption, spurred by post-war reconstruction, population growth, and the rise of consumer culture. The global reliance on oil was solidified, especially for transportation. Natural gas became increasingly important as a cleaner alternative to coal for electricity generation and heating. Nuclear energy, while controversial, provided a new source of electricity with relatively low greenhouse gas emissions.
- The Renewable Energy Transition (Late 20th–21st Century)
- Time Period: Late 20th century to today
- Energy Source: Renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass)
- Impact: Renewable energy is becoming a key player in the global energy mix, especially in electricity generation. This transition is also accompanied by advancements in battery storage, electric vehicles, and smart grids. Many countries are implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and rely more on cleaner, sustainable energy sources to combat climate change.
- The Emerging Hydrogen and Energy Storage Revolution (21st Century)
- Time Period: Ongoing, 21st century
- Energy Source: Hydrogen, energy storage technologies (batteries), advanced nuclear
- Impact: Hydrogen has the potential to play a major role in achieving a low-carbon future, as it can store energy, fuel vehicles, and power industries. Better energy storage solutions are also enabling the greater integration of renewable energy into power grids, accelerating the shift toward cleaner energy systems.
Each of these energy transitions marked significant changes in how societies operate, and we are now in the midst of another transition as the world moves away from fossil fuels toward renewable and sustainable energy solutions.
THE ENERGY TRANSITION IS GLOBAL
Nations worldwide are recognizing climate change driven by scientific forecasts that predict significant disruptions to ecosystems, economies, and humanity due to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including carbon dioxide (CO2). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has consistently warned of catastrophic consequences if global temperatures rise beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, citing dangers such as extreme weather and rising sea levels, displacing millions of people. As a result, both governments and corporations have initiated ambitious strategies to reduce emissions and mitigate the worst effects of climate change. Here are 50 significant national and corporate actions currently underway:
National Efforts:
- European Union Green Deal: The EU aims to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050, with intermediate goals of reducing emissions by 55% by 2030.
- United States Inflation Reduction Act (2022): Includes $369 billion in investments for clean energy and climate initiatives, aiming to reduce GHG emissions by 40% by 2030.
- China's Carbon Neutrality Goal: China, the world's largest emitter, has committed to peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
- Canada's Net-Zero Emissions by 2050: Canada has set a legally binding target of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, with major investments in renewable energy and green technology.
- India's Renewable Energy Push: India is targeting 450 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, aiming to reduce its dependence on coal and lower emissions.
- Germany's Coal Exit Plan: Germany plans to phase out coal by 2038 and increase its reliance on renewable energy sources, including solar and wind.
- Japan’s Green Growth Strategy: Japan aims to be carbon neutral by 2050, with plans for hydrogen fuel and renewable energy to play key roles.
- UK’s Ten-Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution: The UK targets carbon neutrality by 2050, with major investments in offshore wind, hydrogen, and electric vehicles.
- South Korea's Green New Deal: South Korea plans to invest $61 billion in green technologies by 2025 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
- Australia’s Climate Roadmap: Australia is focusing on technology-driven emission reductions, with investments in hydrogen, carbon capture, and renewable energy.
Corporate Efforts:
- Amazon’s Climate Pledge: Amazon has committed to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2040 and purchasing 100,000 electric delivery vehicles.
- Microsoft’s Carbon Negative Goal: Microsoft aims to be carbon negative by 2030 and remove all the carbon it has emitted since its founding by 2050.
- Tesla’s Expansion of Electric Vehicles (EVs): Tesla continues to lead the global EV market, helping to reduce emissions from transportation, one of the largest contributors to GHG emissions.
- Google’s Renewable Energy Goals: Google is committed to running all of its data centers on carbon-free energy by 2030.
- IKEA’s Sustainability Strategy: IKEA aims to be climate positive by 2030, including reducing emissions from product transport and sourcing sustainable materials.
- Apple’s Carbon Neutral Products: Apple aims to make all its products carbon neutral by 2030 through renewable energy and recycled materials.
- Unilever’s Zero Emission Commitment: Unilever has pledged to reach net-zero emissions from all its products by 2039, across its entire value chain.
- BP’s Transition to Green Energy: British Petroleum (BP) plans to reduce oil and gas production by 40% by 2030 and expand renewable energy capacity.
- Shell’s Net-Zero Target: Shell aims to become a net-zero energy company by 2050, including massive investments in renewables and carbon capture technology.
- General Motors' Electric Vehicle Commitment: GM plans to phase out gasoline and diesel-powered cars by 2035 and transition to a fully electric vehicle lineup.
Additional National Policies:
- France’s Ban on Fossil Fuel Exploration: France has banned new fossil fuel exploration and will phase out coal-fired power plants by 2022.
- Norway’s Electric Vehicle Incentives: Norway leads the world in electric vehicle adoption, with more than 54% of new cars sold being electric, supported by strong incentives.
- Finland’s Carbon Neutrality by 2035: Finland aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2035, one of the most ambitious national targets.
- New Zealand’s Zero Carbon Act: New Zealand has legally committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, focusing on agriculture and forestry sectors.
- Denmark’s Offshore Wind Investments: Denmark plans to build an “energy island” in the North Sea to expand its offshore wind capacity.
- Sweden’s Climate Neutral by 2045 Goal: Sweden has set a legally binding target to achieve net-zero emissions by 2045, with substantial investments in renewable energy.
- The Netherlands’ Climate Agreement: The Dutch government aims to reduce GHG emissions by 49% by 2030, focusing on energy efficiency and renewable energy.
- Ireland’s Climate Action Plan: Ireland aims to reduce emissions by 51% by 2030, primarily through renewable energy and carbon pricing.
- South Africa’s Renewable Energy Transition: South Africa is reducing its reliance on coal, investing heavily in solar and wind power.
- Brazil’s Forest Conservation Policies: Brazil has committed to ending illegal deforestation by 2028 as part of its efforts to combat climate change.
Additional Corporate Commitments:
- Walmart’s Project Gigaton: Walmart aims to eliminate one gigaton of CO2 from its supply chain by 2030.
- Ford’s Electric Vehicle Rollout: Ford plans to invest $11.5 billion in electric vehicles through 2022, aiming to make 40% of its global vehicle sales electric by 2030.
- Nestlé’s Net-Zero Roadmap: Nestlé aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, focusing on renewable energy and regenerative agriculture.
- Coca-Cola’s World Without Waste Initiative: Coca-Cola aims to make its entire supply chain sustainable by 2030, focusing on reducing plastic waste and GHG emissions.
- L’Oréal’s Carbon Neutral Production: L’Oréal aims to achieve carbon neutrality across all its facilities by 2025.
- Volkswagen’s Electrification Strategy: Volkswagen plans to be carbon neutral by 2050, with massive investments in electric vehicle production.
- Siemens' Green Energy Initiatives: Siemens has committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030, focusing on energy efficiency and renewable power solutions.
- BMW’s Electric Mobility Vision: BMW plans to have 50% of its global vehicle sales come from electric cars by 2030.
- Maersk’s Zero-Carbon Shipping: Maersk, the world’s largest shipping company, aims to operate carbon-neutral vessels by 2030.
- Airbus’ Hydrogen-Powered Aircraft: Airbus is developing zero-emission aircraft powered by hydrogen, with plans to introduce them by 2035.
Innovative Policies and Projects:
- Iceland’s Carbon Capture Technology: Iceland is developing large-scale carbon capture and storage technology to reduce emissions.
- United Arab Emirates’ Investment in Green Hydrogen: The UAE is investing heavily in green hydrogen production as part of its long-term sustainability strategy.
- Singapore’s Green Plan 2030: Singapore has laid out a comprehensive roadmap to cut emissions, expand green energy, and promote sustainability.
- Chile’s National Green Hydrogen Strategy: Chile is positioning itself as a leader in green hydrogen production to decarbonize heavy industries.
- Costa Rica’s Carbon Neutrality Efforts: Costa Rica has been a leader in renewable energy, with plans to be carbon neutral by 2050.
- Morocco’s Solar Energy Mega-Project: Morocco is home to the world’s largest solar power plant, the Noor Complex, which plays a key role in reducing emissions.
- Finland’s Carbon Negative Forest Management: Finland is enhancing forest management to sequester carbon, reducing its net emissions.
- Italy’s Circular Economy Initiatives: Italy is embracing the circular economy to reduce waste and emissions across industries.
- Australia’s Reforestation Projects: Australia is investing in reforestation to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate the impact of bushfires.
- Thailand’s Green Energy Transition: Thailand is shifting away from coal, investing in solar, wind, and biomass energy projects to reduce emissions.
These national and corporate efforts reflect a growing global commitment to addressing climate change, with a focus on reducing emissions, transitioning to renewable energy, and protecting the environment. Let's also not forget the promise of fusion for energy. - Editor
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84258596166?pw..
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84258596166?pw..
Leigh Bond will be expanding upon his views as reflected in this week's article - above. Joining him will be a response panel of others steeped in the development of alternative energies. Join us and share your views - no charge.
Presenter
Leigh has held several leadership roles, including past member of the Solar Alberta Association and founding chairman of the Alberta Geothermal Energy Association. He has also contributed to Canada's National Ground Source Heat Pump Association. In education, Leigh taught geothermal courses at NAIT and served on advisory committees for various sustainable energy programs.
Currently, Leigh is a consultant at Boundless Renewables Consulting and a founding director of PACE Alberta Co-op Ltd., advocating for the Clean Energy Improvement Program.
Panelests
Ron Maine, FEC, P.Eng. LEED®AP incorporated Maine Consultants in BC, in 1979 to provide engineering and project management for land development, municipal infrastucture, park facilities, industrial sites, and most recently disaster recovery assessments for Alberta municipalities. I’m a proponent of green development that integrates the best options for housing, utilities, and energy.
Thomas Barr is a leader in sustainable community development, focusing on creating resilient, independent communities through integrated design and construction management. His expertise spans shelter, energy, transportation, and food systems, combining them into efficient, scalable, and economically sustainable frameworks. With a strategic approach to development services and project structuring, Thomas aligns community needs with sustainable growth, ensuring that each project is adaptable and resilient. He excels in design management, coordinating diverse teams to implement innovative, high-performance solutions that reduce environmental impact and optimize resources. Thomas’s work is dedicated to fostering communities that are self-sufficient and prepared for future challenges, making him a key advocate for sustainable living and independent community models.
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