ABCtech #12 23FEB14 Group Think Warning

ABCtech #12 23FEB14 Group Think Warning

EDITORIAL. “Advancing technology – the role of skeptics, advocates and an “honest broker”

The RATE at which emerging technologies are entering into society warrants an honest broker. Consider, time and again people overlooking the obvious, wedded to seeing only what they want. Living an illusion. Wishful thinking. Similarly, our institutions and corporations ignore evidence when it is in conflict with current prosperity and prevailing wisdom. This force is termed “group think” or “social compliance”,  explaining the apparent reluctance to learn, to know, to change. VISIT  Neither “science” – as a human endeavor, or scientists, are immune to “group think”. A case in point is the current controversy surrounding the objectivity of data and accuracy of models presented to prove and forecast global warming. VIEW HERE  ALSO

The power of group think is a well documented force explaining erroneous decisions in the history of nations, companies, professions, and science.  Hence, the merit of healthy skepticism when faced with arguments of “consensus” and “political correctness”.  Given the consequence of getting it wrong or being too late, how can one go about getting inoculated? A dose of empiricism – data mining, multiple proofs, skepticism, patience and vigilance can help! Each are important leadership and survival skills! VISIT  Such leadership is very timely – given that group think is one of the more significant impediments to the adoption of emerging technologies.

Rarely – if ever, in history have we witnessed the wide range and rate at which science is yielding new technologies. The result – heightened global competition for innovation, enterprise and the need for renewal by established institutions, proving their relevance. Some of the emerging technologies have extraordinary implications – some utopian, most disruptive. Each garner passionate advocates and equally passionate skeptics – fertile ground for group think. The call for innovation, is a call for creativity and out-of-the-box thinking; a willingness to challenge the status quo – to break out. The call is global and not age restricted. Each have their unique offerings: Youth – bring a fresh perspective, imagination and risk taking, and Seniors – experience and assets, networks and free time. Youth and Seniors – a great creative blend … a breakthrough!

Below are some of the most controversial technologies and commercialization issues that the Alberta Council of Technologies is tracking. Each is inspiring breakthrough thinking. Each threaten established markets. Each have their advocates AND skeptics. And each comprise a significant threat/opportunity and is therefore worth anticipating for maximizing the benefits and minimizing disruption. But timing is everything … hence the attention by most investors to timing. How would you rate the imminence of each of the following technology-sensitive markets and issues: 1 – Too late, mature to 10 – Too early, immature. Also are any dominated by group think, where defensiveness and social consensus is trumping evidence?

• Artificial Intelligence – Off-loading intelligence empowering machines and apps to learn and decide
• Aerospace – Introducing exploration, commercialization and the civilization of space
• Remote Communications – Completing the information highway and extension of broadband
• Construction – Introducing new materials and automation for speedier, more productive assembly
• Data Analytics – Contributing to the customization of service and the end of privacy
• Energy – Achieving fusion ignition and the commercialization of associated technologies
• Environment – Reversing global warming and reducing the production of man-made greenhouse gases
• Financing – Reliance on crowd-sourcing and bitcoins displacing established funding models and sources for financing innovation
• Forestry & Agriculture – Penetrating highly competitive global markets and value-added processing of raw carbon and by-products
• InfoTech – De-emphasis on developing  technologies (industry push & machines) to increasing emphasis on information management (market pull & processes)
• CleanTech – Employing bio-materials and the development of alternative energies for the electrification of everything
• Genomics and Cell Therapies – Improving the quality of life, reproducing limbs and organs, and extending ageing
• Governance – Introducing new options for regulatory and financial management of the economy and containing market avarice
• Law and Security – Purging paper and accepting technologies – more timely and affordable resolution of conflict
• Manufacturing – Advances in 3D printing and production of composite materials
• Neuroscience – Performance enhancement in e.g.: learning and memory, perception and attention, rehabilitation and prevention
• NGOs – Nimble, challenging, consolidating, with deep and broad rich constituencies as a respected 3rd voice in government and industry debate
• Singularity – The convergence of emerging  technologies introducing the post-carbon, creative economy
• Transportation – Autonomous and high speed options for cargo and passengers.

Sobering recollections:

• Peak oil – the beginning of the end
• Y2K – preparing for a forecast millenia crash
• eCommerce – adapt or be out of business in a year.

Perhaps there is another issue or emerging technology where policy work and monitoring should be considered. Let ABCtech know; send us your perspective.

– Editor