ABCtech #61 07MAR16 Transportation – The Future is Now

ABCtech #61 07MAR16 Transportation – The Future is Now

A clear vision and leadership in transportation is emerging. “Transportation” is a strategic option for economic recovery, creating new jobs in engineering and construction. And if the systems employ emerging technologies, the resulting networks will contribute to Alberta’s productivity and economic diversification

Emerging technologies in transportation address: “climate change” through the electrification of public and private vehicles, “innovation” stirring creative innovations in the automation of vehicles, high-speed rail for passenger AND cargo transit, even the use of drones, and “diversification” by establishing circuits of networks for improving Alberta’s N/S and E/W access to markets.

Governments everywhere – federal, provincial and municipal, are preparing for these increasingly popular, lower-cost technologies. Regulatory changes and capital spending are already underway – introduced by leaders with vision, creating new jobs, new networks, and stirring innovation.

In keeping with our interest in emerging technologies and their socio-economic impact, we have asked two Alberta companies to share their views on the future of transportation. Their views are very timely as the Alberta government initiates its consultation on a transportation strategy – FOR MORE. – Editor

Transportation – The future is now by Paul Godsmark – CTO, Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence (CAVCOE)

As Alberta reels from the slump in the oil sector, perhaps it is worth pondering major diversification into the mobility sector. As Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley says: “The auto industry is a century-old ecosystem being ogled by outside players hungry for a slice of a $10-trillion mobility market. Many want in. It’s just beginning. And it won’t stop.”

He notes that automobiles are the most “under-utilized” asset on the planet. Cars costing tens of thousands of dollars sit unused 23 hours of the day, slowly depreciating in value as the elements also take their toll.

“We believe its the most disruptable business on earth,” he says.

The reason that he thinks this? Shared autonomous vehicles. Think ‘Uber on steroids’. Which is worth some consideration, especially as the world’s fastest growing large company (Uber) is also probably the most aggressive investor in… shared autonomous vehicles. Plus the world’s most valuable company, Alphabet (Google) is the leading developer of the technology.

So even a small slice of a $10-trillion pie could improve Alberta’s fortunes, and even though major players are already in this game, the niche areas of this market are simply enormous by any other measure. Autonomous vehicles are so much more than just cars, but will be small electric pods, pods that combine into road trains, service vehicles (surely Canada MUST be first with an autonomous snow plow?), sidewalk friendly delivery robots, self-delivering bicycles etc. Plus, just like the internet, there is incredible potential for new business models – and ones that could well be app based. Public sector funding agencies please note – too much concentration of funds on tangible commercializable products will miss this opportunity to promote this intangible services niche. We may not have Eastern Canada’s experience in the automotive sector, but we have all the tools necessary to grow the new niche areas that will be essential for the bigger mobility picture.

I hear you ask; “But won’t it be many decades before this technology starts to impact our daily lives?” Which in your defense, was a very reasonable comment to make only a couple of years ago. But consider this – Google have made remarkable progress and are consistently stating that they hope to have their technology in public hand’s by 2020. But if you don’t trust the private sector then consider that USDOT have just received 77 submissions from small and medium sized cities for their Smart City Challenge – and the key vision elements revolved around automation and connectivity. US Secretary of Transportation Foxx is on record as saying that he thinks we will see autonomous vehicles (AVs) on the road within five years.

The Canada Transportation Act Review has recommended that with the advent of AVs the Government of Canada develop a national regulatory framework that will harmonize Canada’s approach with United States legislation with respect to the testing and operation of AVs on public roads.  FOR MORE  and “Canadian and U.S. officials are now working hard behind the scenes to present an environmental and climate-change package for the leaders [Obama and Trudeau] to announce, but the exact details of what it entails are being kept closely under wraps. But sources say the agreement is expected to deal with tighter fuel and auto-emission standards and measures to foster innovation such as electric cars, charging stations, self-driving vehicles and ride-sharing apps.”  FOR MORE

If now is the not the right time to promote diversification into the rapidly evolving mobility sector, then when is?

Alberta – Leading A Transportation Renissance?  by Dan Corns, CEO for  Magnovate Technologies

Google’s driverless cars and Elon Musk’s Hyperloop have recently signaled the long-anticipated dawn of automated transportation. Most major global automotive companies have automated vehicle projects underway. Also,  several of the U.S. states have driverless vehicle authorizing regulations as do a handful of European nations.

Now, with ever-more serious environmental concerns about emissions, combined with the advent of electrified vehicles, ride sharing, vehicle sharing and the advances in connected and driverless vehicles, it is predicted that surface transportation is about to go through a major Renaissance.

Alberta based Magnovate Transportation and its industrial consortium: PCL, Stantec, and Lockheed Martin are contributing to the Renaissance by commercializing a new generation of autonomous maglev mass transit system called Magline. Existing modes of transport account for about 25 percent of man- made carbon dioxide and tend to be either relatively slow (i.e., road and water), expensive (i.e., air), or a combination of relatively slow and expensive (i.e., rail). Magnovate’s technology is an entirely new mode of transport that seeks to change this paradigm by being environmentally friendly and, at the same time,  both fast and inexpensive for transporting people and goods.

Magline includes technology advancements that overcome the technical and economic limitations that until now have precluded widespread adoption of maglev.  Based on a Halbach array of magnets, Magline allows electronic track switching with no moving or electric components in the track, which makes possible continuous traffic, vastly improved routing flexibility, and enormous system capacity — in effect, a maglev packet switching network.

Conventional light rail and high speed rail tracks cost $80-100 million per kilometer because they must carry enormously heavy trains to operate efficiently. That weight relentlessly pounds the rail bed which results in expensive ongoing maintenance. Magline two-way guideways cost $17 million per two-way kilometer and reduce maintenance costs by 64% by eliminating friction. The system can provide unparalleled inclusive speed by enabling urban transportation networks with vehicles traveling at 30-100 kph that seamlessly connect to inter-city guideways where vehicle speeds can exceed 500 kph.

Magline systems also have the potential to be self-financing when deployed through public-private consortia that leverage advanced land value capture mechanisms.  Economic value from initial capital investment increases as the network expands under the principles of Metcalfe’s Law and low-cost land between city pairs becomes prime real estate to create modern transit-based communities where commute times are reduced from hours to minutes.

Alberta enjoys the unique opportunity to be the first to exploit the Magnovate Consortium on a major scale.  It is a technology especially well-suited to Canada, a nation with cities strewn across a vast continent of open space.  Such a bold, visionary step would thrust Alberta and Canada immediately into a leadership role in this industry.  As the leader, Alberta could have singular access to large emerging transport market opportunities in China, India, Africa, the Persian Gulf and South America.