ABCtech #26 04NOV14 Super Intelligence Soon

ABCtech #26 04NOV14 Super Intelligence Soon

QuikTech Notes

04-NOV-14

Special Edition –

Super Intelligence Soon?

The following article’s proposition is that genetic engineering (GE) will enable mankind to elevate “intelligence”, is not new.

http://m.nautil.us/issue/18/genius/super_intelligent-humans-are-coming

Others may argue that Watson and machine learning have already arrived as an aide and/or alternative to decision making allowing mankind to off-load intelligence.

http://www.wired.com/2014/10/future-of-artificial-intelligence

The first article’s contribution is it’s predictive analysis of “when” GE will be mainstream. The article cites a range of trends and advances contributing to a conclusion of “soon” or “imminent”. The article is silent on what’s impeding the adoption of GE and the downside impact of “super intelligence”.

Articles focused on “WHEN”? indeed are attention getters! Time and again emerging technologies and their societal impact generate a “WOW! effect”. Emerging technologies and their impact, however, are rarely taken seriously. They are usually correlated with the histrionics associated with Y2K, chicken little and perhaps climate change. And if they are taken seriously and fail to deliver, only serve to impede market development.

Emerging technologies AND their impact are often relegated to the stuff of “science fiction”. They are treated at best as a source of momentary entertainment (Big Bang Theory or The Simpsons) or deserving of a brief, buried newspaper article or PBS documentary.

At worst – and far too often, the prophet exaggerates “imminence” or “impact”, thus serving to discredit science AND the scientist. Marketing and commerce invite a violation of science: crediting confirming evidence and discrediting anything contrary.

The alert investor, social and/or science policy maker employs evaluative criteria to emerging technologies and their impact applying “immediacy” criteria: cost, profit, votes. The criteria usually exclude longer term socio-economic criteria assuming: 1. there is always enough time to adapt and reflect and 2. caution not to trigger a false positive or panic. A further complication is that any public discourse on an emerging technology and/or its impact requires a basic understanding of science – an informed listener and a credible, unbiased  communicator!

Policy makers, investors, media – society’s guides, are skilled at detecting “wow!” and politely relegating the application to the “wait and see” pile. Contrarians are often labeled as ignorant, hysteric, or just “crack pots”.

Hence, “applied” trumps “basic”. Private trumps public. Monitoring trumps acting. And waiting trumps acting. My conclusion?

Only an NGO – not government and not corporations, not media or marketers, can assess imminence without compromise.  That is the job of an “honest broker” – prepared to publicly explore emerging technologies, their socio-economic implications and imminence. As such the NGO serves to educate and garner respect as a guardian of the future.

– Thank you, Esir Pretne

For a sober assessment of Artificial Intelligence click on the views of Steven Hawkings